The toy industry expects an extraordinary lift from film-related licensed merchandise this year.
Trade show Toy Fair, which ended in New York this week, generated lots of buzz for movie-related toys from journalists and film fans (the polished Stormtroopers screengrab above from YouTube about Toy Fair is by a New Zealand couple who are “Star Wars” aficionados).
The upcoming movies with high toy-sales potential are from Disney with “Toy Story 5” and “Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu”; Universal Pictures’ “Minions” and “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” animation sequels; Paramount Pictures’ animated “PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie”; live-action “Masters of the Universe” from Amazon MGM Studios; and Sony Pictures’ live-action “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” starring Tom Holland.
Apple TV’s live-action “Matchbox: The Movie” starring John Cena is set to premiere in streaming in October, and is based on the toy line of die-cast metal cars and figures owned by toy giant Mattel.
There’s also an expanded merchandise program for sleeper hit “Kpop Demon Hunters” from Sony Pictures Animation/Netflix, which grossed $24 million at the boxoffice last summer and then soared on Netflix streaming (a sequel is cooking!).
“Star Wars,” “Minions” and “He-Man” got pricey Super Bowl TV commercials earlier this month to propel their cinema premieres. “Masters of the Universe” is based on a Mattel toy line introduced back in 1982.
“Most of the [promising] films in the pipeline are sequels or parts of big franchises,” wrote Lisa Fickenscher in a New York Post newspaper article. “The lineup looks comparable to 2019, when ‘Angry Birds 2,’ ‘Frozen 2,’ ‘Toy Story 4’ and ‘Spider-Man: Far from Home’ were released.”
Toy Fair is the annual trade show in New York City that is run by an industry trade group. Some 700 exhibitors showed their wares with 30,00 sellers and buyers attending. All kinds of toys are on display, not just film-related.
Besides being a catalyst for moving toys to retailers, the industry extravaganza gives a publicity lift. The event draws mainstream news, and also a raft of influencers and fanboys, who are taste-makers.
Besides showcasing this year’s merchandise, Toy Fair is also a platform for announcing new deals with toys to come. For example, Paramount just signed a multiyear deal with Mattel for consumer products based on “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,” the comic book-originated franchise that the major movie studio now owns. Elsewhere, Warner Bros. inked a pact with toy giant Hasbro for new “Harry Potter” products; Hasbro is the longtime home for toys from “Star Wars,” the Disney franchise. Mattel owns the Barbie doll property, which spawned a 2023 blockbuster live-action movie distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures.
Toy and consumer-products company JAKKS Pacific announced at Toy Fair the extension of its merchandise rights to the next “Super Mario” movie with Universal Products & Experiences, Universal’s Illumination animation production arm and video game giant Nintendo. “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” hits theaters April 1.
For the top tier of family films from Hollywood major studios with blockbuster potential, the majors can pocket $5 million to $20 million each in licensing royalties from all merchandise; toys are a big chunk of that haul. Royalty rates are 3-17% of net wholesale prices (wholesale is usually about half the shelf price of the same item in stores).
“Every movie distributor would love for merchandise boutiques promoting their movies to saturate the nation, but retailers are cautious about handing over precious floorspace because they can’t readily sort out he hits and misses in advance,” states the third edition of business/academic book “Marketing to Moviegoers.” Hollywood merchandise exploded in 1977 with the over-the-top success of the first “Star Wars” film.
Overall, toys today are a $45 billion-revenue global industry, which is struggling with the China tariff battle that roiled manufacturing. The business also faces changing youth preferences in the digital age of TikTok.
But in some good news, Paris-based retailer technology provider Circana estimates global toy sales grew 7% in 2025, reversing three straight years of industry-revenue decline. The industry hopes that Hollywood’s promising film-related toys will keep sales growing.
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