Despite the naysayers, cinema’s outlook continues to gradually improve as it recovers from the pandemic, video streaming competition and interrupted movie flow from Hollywood labor strikes.
The key favorable trends are wide-release film output expected to return to pre-pandemic levels next year, the children’s demographic embraces movie-going (children’s blockbuster “Zootopia 2” pictured above) and video streamers increasingly booking their best original movies for cinema runs. Further, audiences pay up for big-screens (that home viewing can’t duplicate) and non-traditional content such as Taylor Swift concert movies pop-up as welcome surprises for the cinema business.
It’s a lot to unpack. There are a lot of threads intertwined, including some bad for cinema, but taken together the general trend is upward. But the best news is a return to normal movie output forecast for 2026, after disruption from the pandemic, and then the writers and actors strikes in 2023.
Sean Gamble, the CEO of the third largest U. S. circuit Cinemark, told an earnings investor call Nov. 5 that he expects 120 “wide release” films in 2025, closing in on the 130-title count pre-pandemic. “We expect next year will be another notch … closer to the 130 — it could even get to the 130 based on how the slate ultimately plays out,” Gamble forecast. “So, all those signs are positive.” Gamble adds that boxoffice suffered this year because there was no major animated film in the third quarter, unlike normal years.
Cinemark defines “wide release” as playing on 1,500 domestic screens at some point. Though not mentioned, the original films from streamers making theatrical runs often have short bookings of two weeks, versus the normal four-to-six weeks. Still, getting back to pre-pandemic levels for big films in cinemas (no matter the time in cinema runs) is excellent.
Remember, the naysayers suggest that the youth audience has become home-bodies from constant video streaming on cell phones and TV sets, and does not have the going-out-to-the-movies habit. But wait!
Whimsical animated “Zootopia 2” from Walt Disney Studios posted a gargantuan $97 million in domestic (U.S. and Canada) boxoffice for its premiere Nov 28-30 weekend (that fell within the Thanksgiving holiday with the film grossing $156 million over five days). The blockbuster launch is proof of an ongoing and rich boom in family films rated PG (parental guidance), as kids ages nag their parents to drag them to cinemas.
From January to June, “PG films have earned $1.53 billion, accounting for 41% of the year-to-date revenue,” says a story by Rebecca Rubin in trade newspaper Variety. “It’s the highest percentage of any rating this year, according to Comscore. That’s notable because it’s usually PG-13 films that generate the biggest bucks.” PG13 rating alerts parents that some content in a film may not be suitable of ages 13 and under, but most of the film is fine.
In calendar 2024, seven of the 10 highest-grossing worldwide releases were PG: Disney’s “Inside Out 2,” “Moana 2” and “Mufasa: The Lion King,” Universal’s “Despicable Me 4,” “Wicked” and “Kung Fu Panda 4” and Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3.” That’s more than previous years.
The kids’ demographic craves the out-of-home experience with an audience and big screen, and are not lost to video streaming, as naysayers would have us believe. Hollywood marketing researcher NRG found Gen Alpha (ages 12 and under) prefer watching movies in a theater more than home (59% preferring theater, 24% preferring home), the highest of any other generation, ahead of Gen Z, millennials, and GenX-ers.
There were worries that females were withdrawing from cinema. Then, Universal Pictures fixed that problem last month with “Wicked: For Good” hauling in $270 million (and still counting) in a little over two weeks in domestic theaters alone. That “Wizard of Oz” derivative yarn drew cinema crowds 71% female (compared to 51% of the total population).
Video streamers are embracing cinema runs for their big originals, though giant Netflix is least committed to theatrical. Amazon, which acquired the historic MGM studio in 2022, is particularly a cinema advocate. For example, its sci-fi yarn “Project Hail Mary” is scheduled for a big cinema premiere March 20. The movie stars Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) as a reluctant astronaut launched into outer space to save mankind.
The accompanying bar-chart below shows domestic boxoffice (U.S. and Canada) over 45 years, with text noting milestone in the marketplace. The cinema data is from ComScore presented by theater circuit Cinemark. Domestic boxoffice hit $11.48 billion in 2019, but then was ravaged by pandemic and climbed back to $8.7 billion in 2024, which off slightly from $8.9 billion in 2023.
Uneven flow of movies impacted, plus cinema stats always zig-zag, though over time arcing in an obvious direction. That $8.7 billion from 2024 is way ahead of just $2.6 billion in not-that-long-ago 1980.
Cinema’s biggest screens are hits. Warner Bros. Pictures car racing drama “F1” collected 15% of its $630 million global boxoffice from Imax screens, which account for under 1% of worldwide screens. Those are large screens that home viewing can’t match and “F1” originated with Apple TV, which is holding back the Brad Pitt drama until Dec. 12 on its streaming platform.
Those favorable trends seem to overshadow nagging cinema problems of a decline in upmarket adult audiences, growing competition from video streaming and domestic boxoffice (U.S. and Canada) below pre-pandemic levels. Year-to-date this year lags by 22% the pre-pandemic boxoffice comparison year of 2019. But this year is up 3% from 2024. Again, movie flow from Hollywood is expected to improve going forward.
Another question mark is how much the new owner of Warner Bros. Pictures will be committed to a cinema strategy, as what is Hollywood’s largest major studio is in a corporate auction to be sold.
But the recovery trends remain stronger than the problems.
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