Consultancy PwC forecasts that global cinema revenue will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2025 at a projected $46.6 billion worldwide, compared with $43 billion in 2019. The 2025 figure is the sum of $43 billion in boxoffice (ticket sales) plus another $3.3 billion in on-screen advertising.
That’s according to PwC’s mammoth annual “Global Entertainment & Media Outlook” report that projects business conditions for five years.
The forecast for that final year of 2027 is $52.1 billion in worldwide cinema revenue, up 44% from the $36.3 billion forecast for 2023. For just the U.S., “By 2025 box office is predicted to exceed the $10.0bn mark regularly achieved in the pre-pandemic era.”
| 2019 | 2021 | 2023f | 2025f | 2027f | |
| Global Cinema Rev $ bil. | 43.0 | 21.5 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 52.1 |
| Boxoffice $ bil. | 39.4 | 19.6 | 33.0 | 43.0 | 48.4 |
| Cinema advertising $ bil. | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
If those projections are achieved, it’ll be an amazing comeback from 2020’s depth of just $12 billion in global cinema revenue (and $21.5 billion for 2021) and a rebuke to cinema naysayers. The skeptics, who are so far proved wrong by cinema’s rebound and PwC’s forecasts, maintained theatrical would be killed off by a pandemic-infused stay-at-home mentality and competition from movies on video streaming.
Here’s what’s driving growth, in PwC’s estimation:
* Saudi Arabia reintroduced cinema six years ago, and PwC expects it will generate $649 million this year, moving from nothing to being a midsized territory.
* China is shaking off pandemic malaise. “China is forecast to have box office revenue of US$13.2bn in 2027,” says the “Outlook” report. “That’s higher than the US$11.9bn forecast for North American box office revenue in the same year.”
* PwC sees the Hollywood movie pipeline rapidly returning to normal, after summer 2022 suffered from a patchy release schedule, even though cinemas reopened, due to pandemic interruption of film production. (The current Hollywood writers’ labor strike potentially could undercut the return to film-flow normalcy).
* Video streamers are embracing regular theatrical releases for their top original movies as even cinema-skeptic Netflix is warming. Netflix acknowledged that a wider theatrical release would have been better for its “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” that grossed $15 million on a moderate 600-screen run.
* Cinema is affordable out-of-home entertainment, as tickets to sports events, live concerts and Broadway theater have skyrocketed.
Here are areas of concern:
* Cinema is increasingly dependent on blockbusters, with midmarket movie and arthouse battered by the pandemic and shrinking in cinemas.
* “Although cinema-going is rebounding sharply from pandemic lows … cinemas will still be selling fewer tickets at the end of the pandemic than at the start of the cycle in 2018,” says the Outlook report. Average ticket prices buttress cinema-industry revenue, however.
On the outsized reliance on blockbuster titles, last year’s ”Avatar: The Way of Water” became all-time boxoffice champ with $2.3 billion globally, “Top Gun: Maverick” generated $1.5 billion, and “Jurassic World: Dominion” posted $1 billion.
There are signs medium-caliber films are on the rebound, too. “Horror pictures such as ‘M3gan’ and Indian movies such as ‘RRR,’ ‘Baahubali 2: The Conclusion’ and action-thriller ‘Pathaan’ were solid box office successes in North America in 2022 and early 2023,” says the “Outlook” report. “This performance follows on from the success achieved pre-pandemic by distributor Neon with ‘Parasite,’ the Oscar-winning Korean horror picture.” Oscar Best Picture winner “Everything Everywhere All At Once” can be added to the list as that midbudget, $25 million production grossed $141 million worldwide.
The “Outlook” report tracks boxoffice and on-screen advertising, but not other revenue streams of movie theaters such as food/beverage, also called called “concessions,” and facilities rentals. A decade ago, “food and beverage sales in the United States work out to around $2.8 billion in annual revenue,” says the third edition of business/academic book “Marketing to Moviegoers.”
PwC is one of the Big Four global business advisory firms whose acronym comes from its full name, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC. Its annual “Outlook” report projects media businesses from 2023-2027 and cinema is one of 13 segments examined. Among other sections include traditional TV, music-radio-podcasts, video games-e-sports, over-the-top video and print publications.
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