Universal Pictures’ R-rated comedy “Neighbors” confounded Hollywood research with an over-the-top $51.1 million in box office over its premiere three-day weekend, 46% higher than tracking studies that expected $35 million. The raunchy comedy stars Seth Rogan being abused by a college fraternity that shatters the peace of the neighborhood, and it far surpassed the second week of “The Amazing Spiderman 2′” — which surprised many pundits.
“‘Credit goes to the combined star power of its three leads, as well as a stunningly potent and easy to sell concept (‘Family Vs. Frat’),” writes Scott Mendelson at Forbes magazine. “Universal knew they had a critical winner too, screening it early and often.”
Interestingly, another comedy — Warner Bros. more sedate comedy “Blended” — is headed for a weak premiere May 23, according to Hollywood researchers who conduct tracking surveys evaluating consumer interest in films six weeks prior to release. “Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore’s upcoming romantic comedy “Blended” may have trouble crossing $25 million in its domestic debut, based on early tracking,” says a Hollywood Reporter story by Pamela McClintock. “The comedy (‘Blended’) reunites the two stars for the first time since box-office hit ’50 First Dates; a decade ago.” The movie is rated PG-13.
Hollywood researchers should be able to forecast mainstream films accurately in their tracking surveys, though in recent years there’s been a crisis from difficulty in assembling valid audiences to poll due to consumers being hard to interview in the digital landscape.
‘Today’s households increasingly enter their phone numbers on the do-not-call list, opt for unlisted telephone numbers, use call blocking, use call waiting, or rely completely on cell phones and broadband voice,’ says the third edition of book “Marketing to Moviegoers.” “It is not always clear where cell-phone users live, making it difficult to categorize a respondent by geography.”
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